Is Phoenix a Buyer’s Market in 2026? It Depends Where You Live
Most people hear “buyer’s market” and assume it applies everywhere. The March 2026 Cromford data tells a very different story city by city.
Everyone keeps saying Phoenix is in a buyer’s market. They’re wrong. And they’re also right.
The overall Cromford Market Index for Greater Phoenix is at 83.6. For context, 100 is balanced, above 110 is a seller’s market, and below 90 is a buyer’s market. So the Valley as a whole leans toward buyers.
If that’s all you heard, you might think it’s a great time to buy anywhere in Phoenix. But here’s where it gets interesting.
Every single established central city in the Valley is a seller’s market right now.
• Chandler is at 147.6
• Gilbert is at 141.4
• Phoenix proper is at 131.4
• Scottsdale is at 121.3
• Glendale is at 119.6
• Tempe is at 117.4
• Goodyear is at 70
• Surprise is at 65.5
• Queen Creek is at 63.4
• Buckeye is at 52.1
• Maricopa is at 51.6
That’s a nearly 100-point spread between Chandler and Buckeye. This isn’t one housing market. It’s two completely different markets that happen to share a freeway system.
Why is the overall number misleading? Supply is at 101.4, which is normal for the first time in 14 years. But demand is at 84.8, below normal, which is dragging the overall index down. It’s not that there are too many homes for sale. It’s that there aren’t enough people buying.
Consumer confidence is low. People are reading headlines about tariffs, recessions, and freezing. Tina Tamboer, the Cromford Report’s senior analyst, put it simply: this isn’t a downturn, it’s a normalization, and buyers can actually negotiate again.
The math on buying right now actually works better than it has in the past 2 years. But people don’t feel that way. Are you making decisions based on how the market feels, or based on what the numbers actually say?
Mortgage rates and what they actually mean. A year ago, the 30-year fixed was sitting around 6.65% to 6.8%. Today, it’s right around 6%. FHA loans are in the mid-5s.
Take the median-priced home in the Valley. A year ago, your monthly payment would have been roughly $2,920. Today, same home, same down payment, it comes in around $2,570. That’s $350 a month less. Over a year, $4,200 back in your pocket.
Tamboer made a point that I think a lot of people need to hear: there’s very little advantage to delaying a purchase by three to six months at this point. The big move has already happened.
And if you’re waiting for 3% rates to come back, they’re not. We went from 3% during the pandemic to nearly 8% in late 2023 and settled into the low 6s. 6% is historically normal. The pandemic 3% was the anomaly, not the benchmark.
Here’s the other thing. It’s not falling rates that get people off the sidelines. It’s stable rates. People buy when they believe the rate they’re getting today will still be the same tomorrow. Rates have been stable in this range for the past six months.
This is not 2008. In 2006, the Phoenix median peaked at about $265,000. By 2011, it had crashed to $115,000. A 57% drop driven by homes that should never have been built, bought by people who should never have qualified. Today’s median is around $435,000. Yes, it’s pulled back from the 2022 peak of $475,000. But that’s not a crash. That’s a plateau.
Prices have been flat for two years while incomes and rates have adjusted. There’s no oversupply, no foreclosure wave. 80% of homeowners have a rate below 5%. They’re not going anywhere.
If you bought before 2021, you’re sitting on significant equity. Bought in 2018 at $235,000? Your home is worth roughly $435,000 today.
“Are you making decisions based on how the market feels, or based on what the numbers actually say?”
If you’re selling. The window is still open in the central cities, but it’s not getting wider. Scottsdale dropped 11% in one month. Goodyear dropped 19%. If you’re in Gilbert, Chandler, Scottsdale, Mesa, or Phoenix proper, you’re still in a seller’s market. But pricing matters more than it has in years. Price it as a good deal for the buyer. Clean, well-maintained, competitively priced homes are still getting multiple offers.
Overpriced homes are sitting. And if you’re within a mile of new construction, your buyers are comparing you to a brand-new build with rate buydowns and closing cost credits.
If you’re in one of the outer cities where the index is deep in buyer’s territory, it’s going to be tougher. You’ll need to price aggressively. And if you’re thinking about renting it out instead, in most cases, you’ll end up further behind than if you sold and put that money somewhere else.
I built a rent-versus-sell calculator for exactly this question. It shows whether you’re better off at three, five, and ten years based on your specific numbers. Reach out, and I’ll plug in your address and give you a clear answer.
If you’re buying. In February 2022, the Cromford index was 475. That meant 15 to 20 offers per house, no inspections, and $50,000 over asking. Today it’s 83.6. Completely different market.
In Buckeye, Queen Creek, Surprise, and Goodyear, you have serious leverage. Builders are offering buydowns, credits, and every incentive they can. But developers have scaled back permit issuance to prevent oversaturating those markets, so this inventory won’t last forever. In the central cities, you’ll face more competition, but nothing close to the frenzy of 2021.
The wild card nobody’s talking about. Canadian lumber now faces up to 45% in combined tariffs and duties, and roughly 30% of the lumber used in American home construction comes from Canada. Building material costs are projected to rise 6% to 14% this year. New homes are not getting cheaper. If you’re waiting for prices to drop, you might be waiting while the cost to build keeps going up.
The bottom line: Phoenix is dozens of micro markets, and the gap between them is wider than it’s been in years. Where you are, what price point you’re at, and whether you’re buying or selling all change the answer.
If you want to know what the numbers look like for your specific neighborhood or zip code, reach out. I pull this data from the Cromford Report every month, and I’m happy to walk you through it. And if you’re weighing rent versus sell, I’ll run your numbers through my calculator so you can see the breakdown at three, five, and ten years.
Call me at 480-378-6700, email me at john@gluchgroup.com, or visit gluchgroup.com. Let’s look at the numbers together.
